杜 鑫 摘 要 由于特殊的城乡分割制度和农村集体土地制度，中国的农村劳动力转移主要呈现出了就地转移和异地转移这两种不同的转移方式。利用中国社会科学院经济研究所收入分配课题组2002年全国农村住户调查数据，本文研究了劳动力转移及其两种不同的转移方式对农村居民经济福利的影响，并对两种不同的劳动力转移方式的不同影响效果进行比较分析。 2002年全国农村住户调查数据的描述性统计分析表明，我国各收入阶层的农户对劳动力转移活动的参与率都是比较高的，并且转移就业参与率随着初始收入水平的提高而不断提高，从最低10%收入组的大约60%上升到最高10%收入组的78%。其中，主要是就地转移参与率随收入水平上升而提高的趋势比较明显，而异地转移参与率在各收入阶层之间的变化相对较小。关于农户对劳动力转移就业参与决策的经济计量分析表明，除了最高收入阶层的少数农户外，绝大多数农户的转移就业参与概率随着初始收入的提高而增加，劳动力人数、土地、生产性固定资产、社会资本、地理交通等因素都对农户对劳动力转移就业的参与概率产生了显著影响。 本文关于劳动力转移对农村居民收入水平、收入分配及贫困的影响的研究表明，劳动力转移活动使得农村居民中各收入阶层的人均可支配收入都有所增加，全体农村居民人均可支配收入从不发生劳动力转移时的2540元增加到了3260元，收入差距有所缩小，基尼系数从0.4076降低为0.3816，农村居民的贫困发生率和贫困深度均得以降低。因此，从总体上说，劳动力转移活动改善了农村居民的经济福利状况。进一步的研究则表明，虽然就地转移和异地转移这两种劳动力转移方式都改善了农村居民的经济福利状况，但其对农村居民经济福利的改善方式或程度是不同的。就地转移对提高整个家庭乃至全体农村居民平均收入水平的贡献较大，但对农村居民收入差距的影响基本上是中性的，对提高低收入阶层收入和农村地区减贫的作用也相对较弱。异地转移对提高整个家庭及全体农村居民平均收入水平的贡献较小，但却显著地缩小了农村居民的收入差距，对农村地区减贫的作用也相对较强，从而对农村地区的低收入贫困阶层产生了更为有利的影响。另外，与其他研究相类似，本文的研究也发现，虽然异地转移劳动力相比就地转移劳动力能够获得更高的个人工资性收入（甚或更高的个人总收入），但异地转移活动对提高整个家庭收入的贡献却低于就地转移活动，其中的主要原因就在于就地转移劳动力能够较多地兼营家庭农业生产，机会成本较低，而异地转移劳动力在兼营家庭农业生产方面处于不利地位，机会成本较高，同时也要承担较高的外出流动成本。 本文关于劳动力转移对农村住户家庭支出水平的影响的研究发现，中国农村劳动力的转移——主要是其中的就地转移——有利于提高农户的人均生活消费和人均居住支出等消费性支出水平，但对人均教育支出和人均生产性固定资产购置支出等投资性支出水平并没有产生显著影响。两种劳动力转移方式相比较，就地转移对提高农户消费性支出水平产生了显著的正向影响，但异地转移活动却对农户提高消费性支出水平无显著影响。 本文的研究发现为我国通过劳动力转移的途径来彻底解决“三农”问题提供了较强的经验依据。加快现存城乡分割制度和农村集体土地制度的改革步伐，推进劳动力转移进程，应成为当前我国解决“三农”问题的首要选择。 关键词：劳动力转移 就地转移 异地转移 经济福利 中国农村 Abstract Because of special urban-rural dividing system and rural collective land system, there have been two kinds of agricultural labor transfer in rural China, i.e. local transfer and migration. Utilizing the 2002 national rural household survey conducted by the Income Distribution Project Group of the Institute of Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Science, the impacts of Chinese rural labor transfer on the economic welfare of rural residents have been studied and the different impacts of two kinds of rural labor transfer on the economic welfare of rural residents have been comparatively analyzed in the thesis. The descriptive statistics of the 2002 national rural household survey data has shown that the participation rate of labor transfer of rural households in each economic class is considerably high, and the participation rate of labor transfer of rural households increases as their initial income increases from about 60% of the lowest 10% income class to about 78% of the highest 10% income class. The participation rate of local transfer of rural households increases remarkably as their initial income increases, but the changes of participation rate of migration among each income class are very small. The econometric analysis of participating decision about labor transfer of rural households has shown that the participation probability of nearly all rural households increases as their initial income increases except the very few rural households of the highest income class, and the rural households’ laborers, land, productive fixed asset, social capital, the location site and traffic condition have influenced the participation probability of rural households. The study in the thesis about the impacts of rural labor transfer on the income level, the income distribution and poverty has shown that through labor transfer rural residents in each economic class have gained an increase in per capita disposable income from 2, 540 yuan when no labor transfer to 3, 260 yuan, a reduction in income inequality with the Gini coefficient decreasing from 0.4706 to 0.3816, and poverty alleviation with reduced poverty head-count ratio and poverty gap ratio. Consequently, rural labor transfer as a whole has bettered the economic welfare of rural residents. Further study has indicated that although both of two kinds of rural labor transfer-local transfer and migration-have bettered the economic welfare of rural residents, the ways and the extent in which two kinds of labor transfer have bettered the economic welfare of rural residents are different. Compared with migration, local labor transfer contributes more to the average income of the families of locally transferred laborers and all the rural residents, but produces neutral impact on the income distribution of rural residents, and is less helpful to increase the income level of the poor rural residents in the lower income class and alleviate poverty in rural areas. Migration contributes less to the average income of the families of migrant laborers and all the rural residents, but helps to reduce the income differential among rural residents, and generates stronger impacts on poverty alleviation in rural areas, so it is more beneficial to the poor rural residents in the lower income class. Additionally, with similarity to other studies, the study in the thesis also finds that although migrant laborers can receive higher personal wage income or even higher personal earnings than locally transferred laborers, but labor migration contributes less to the families which migrant laborers belong to than local transfer does, the main cause of which is that locally transferred laborers can spare more time in the household agricultural production and local transfer has lower opportunity costs, whereas migrant laborers inconveniently engage in household agricultural production part-time so that migration has higher opportunity costs plus additional outflow costs. The study in the thesis about the impacts of rural labor transfer on household expenditures has found that Chinese rural labor transfer, mainly rural local transfer, helps to enhance consumptive expenditures such as per capita living consumption, per capita housing expense of rural households, but has no statistically significant impact on investment expenditures such as per capita education expense, per capita purchasing expense for productive fixed asset. Compared with each other, local transfer has statistically significant impact on household consumptive expenditures, whereas migration has no statistically significant impact on it. The study of the thesis provides substantial empirical evidence for thoroughly solving China’s sannong problems (agricultural, rural and peasant problems) by means of labor transfer. Accelerating the reform of the existing urban-rural dividing system and rural collective land system to speed up rural labor transfer should be a priority for solving China’s sannong problems. Key words: labor transfer; local transfer; migration; economic welfare; rural China.