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完全风险分担模型的经验检验——基于四省农户五年面板数据的研究
2008.10.31
傅 娟 内容摘要 众所周知,我国的保险市场目前仍然很欠缺,保险机制不健全。在农村地区,这个问题尤为严重。因此,收入风险问题对于农户来说便显得更加突出。但在实际中,由于农户们拥有许多非正式的手段来应对收入风险,因而消费在一定程度上还是可以得到保障的。本文研究了消费平滑中的完全风险分担模型。 本文使用统计局对江苏、河南、四川和云南四省农户定点调查的五年面板数据,分别检验了不同消费支出在村范围内、县范围内和省范围内的完全风险分担模型。经验研究的结果表明:农户在遇到特定收入冲击时,总消费支出和食物消费支出在村范围内可以进行完全风险分担,但健康医疗消费支出在村范围内的完全风险分担却得不到保证。此外,检验拒绝了所有消费支出在县和省范围内的完全风险分担假设。 基于以上结果,我们建议:第一,农户的消费平滑最好是以村为单位考察,在更大范围上的检验往往会低估实际中农户的风险分担和消费平滑程度。第二,国家和地方政府应该进一步出台措施对农民进行医疗保障,同时加强已有政策的执行力度。 关键词:完全风险分担模型 特定冲击 检验 社群 Abstract As known, China is very lack of insurance markets and the existed insurance institutions have not been completed, especially in rural areas. So, the problem of income risk is much greater for farmers. But in reality, rural households often have many informal ways to deal with income shocks, which insure their consumption. This paper focuses on the full risk-sharing model for consumption smoothing. We use the NBS's annual rural survey data from 2000 to 2004, which covers Jiangsu, Henan, Sichuan and Yunnan, and test the full insurance model for 3 kinds of consumption expenditure with different "community" definition. The empirical results indicate that rural households can smooth their total consumption expendi ture and food consumption expenditure through risk-sharing within villages when encountering exogenous idiosyncratic shocks, but not for health consumption expenditure. More important, the tests refused the full risk-sharing model within counties and provinces for all the 3 consumption expenditures. According to the results, we conclude: First, it's closer to reality to research rural households' consumption smoothing within villages other than within greater scales of areas; Second, the governments should take measures and make policies to insure farmers' health consumption expenditures. Keywords: full risk-sharing model idiosyncratic shock test community

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