摘 要 利率作为资金的价格，影响着企业投资、金融机构经营等。利率政策在各国货币当局货币政策中的地位越来越重要。改革开放前，我国政府采取行政手段对经济进行直接调控，在利率上实行严格、僵化的管理体制。改革开放后，利率对经济生活的影响逐步被人们所认识，利率理论和利率政策越来越受到重视，中央银行也试图通过利率杠杆对经济进行调控。 理论上看，西方经济学主要流派对利率、投资的分析角度不同，结论也存在差异。如新古典学派、凯恩斯学派认为利率与投资呈反向变动关系，琼·罗宾逊认为利率对投资的影响较小。这种差异是本文实证分析的前提和基础。文章以最小二乘法实证了利率与投资存在较强的反向相关关系。利用弹性分析法，结合1992年～2002年（分为1992年～1996年和1997年～2002年两个阶段）和2003年以后两个经济周期阶段的经济运行特点，讨论了1992年以来我国利率政策实践对投资的影响，分析了部分年份影响利率与投资敏感性的因素，如1993年的金融秩序整顿、1994年的外汇体制改革、1998年的积极财政政策等。文章从投资意愿和资金来源角度分析了利率与投资的传导机制，实证认为，我国固定资产投资增长率和实际利率与平均资本利润率的差额表现出较强的相关关系。但我国垄断性行业偏高的利润率削弱了利率政策对投资的影响效果。我国大部分行业的平均利润率超过贷款利率，这使得利率对提高投资使用效率和配置效率的作用难以发挥。实证认为，我国商业银行的借贷行为与利率水平、存贷款利差均不存在相关关系，支撑目前商业银行信贷冲动的是特殊的信贷环境，包括流动性过剩、盈利压力增大、地方政府投资冲动与融资途径缺乏等。文章认为，2003年以来，我国经济增长出现了一些不平衡因素。中国固定资产投资虽出现了过度扩张，投资结构也存在不合理因素，但要实现中国经济持续较快增长，投资必须保持一个适度的增长率。目前货币当局在利率政策和汇率政策的平衡中，调控天平应更多地偏向调升利率。利率变动宜采用平滑方式进行操作。货币当局应通过保持物价基本稳定、提高经济主体市场化水平、加大行政垄断行业改革力度、使商业银行回归信贷理性等提高利率政策效果。未来几年，货币当局将逐步实现利率市场化，这将对利率政策实践产生深远影响。 文章的分析结论具有较强的理论和实践意义。如利率与投资增长的关系受多种因素的影响，这是对传统理论的补充，也充分表明了经济运行中各经济变量之间综错复杂的影响关系，同时对货币当局充分考虑各种干扰因素，提高利率政策的有效性具有重要的指导意义等。 关键词：利率 投资 经济增长 弹性 Abstract Interest rate, as the price of the fund, affects the enterprises investment, financial organ management and so on.The interest rate policy is more and more important in the currency authority monetary policy status. Before the reform and open policy, the government adopts the administrative method to carry on the direct regulation to economy, practices strictly, ossified management system in the interest rate. After the reform and open policy, the interest rate which can influence the economic and society life was known gradually by the people. The interest rate theory and the interest rate policy are more and more frequently taken into account, The Central Bank also attempts using the interest rate to carry on the regulation on the economy. Theoretically, the analysis angle of the Western economic main school to interest rate and investment is different, the conclusion is also dissident. For example, the neoclassic school, the Keynes school thinks interest rate and investment assumes the reverse change relations, Joe Robinson believes the influence of interest rate to investment is small. This kinds of difference is analysis premise and foundation of this article. The article firstly real diagnosis by the least squares method interest rate and investment existence strong reverse co relational dependence.Then use elastic analytic method, ties economical movement characteristics of two economical cyclical stage which is year 1992 ~2002 (divide into two stages: year1992 ~1996 and 1997 ~2002) and later 2003, discusses interest rate policy of our country practice influence to the investment after 1992, analyze the factors that influence the relational dependence of interest rate and investment in partial years, for example, the financial order reorganization in 1993, foreign exchange organizational reform in 1994, the positive financial policies in 1998 and so on.. The article analyze the conduction mechanism between interest rate and investment from the angle of investment wish and capital source, the real diagnosis analysis believe that, in our country the fixed assets investment increment rate displays strong correlational dependence with the margin between real interest rate and average capital profit. But the high profit rate of monopolizing profession in our country weaken the influence effect of interest rate policy on investment. The majority of profession average rate of profit in our country surpasses the loan interest rate, this causes difficulty for the interest rate to enhance the investment usage efficiency and disposition efficiency function. The real diagnosis show that the lenting behavior of commercial banks in our nation have no relational dependence with neither interest rate level nor saves and loan interest rate margin, the commercial bank credit impulse at present is supported by the special credit environment, including the fluidity surplus, the profit pressure of commercial banks, the local authority investment impulse and finances scarcity and so on. The analysis of article shows, since 2003, the economy growth of our country appeared some unbalanced factors. The article believes, although the China fixed assets investment appeared expanded excessively, the investment structure also had some unreasonable factors, but in order to realize the Chinese economy growing quickly and continuly, the investment had to maintain a moderate rate of increment. In the balance of interest rate policy and foreign exchange policy, the currency authority should suppose more deviations to promote the interest rate. The interest rate smoothing method should selected to carry on the interest rate changes. Therefore, the currency authority must enhance the interest rate policy effect through maintaining the stablity of price, raising marketability level of economic subjects, enlarging reform dynamics of administration monopoly profession, enabling the commercial bank to return the credit operation rationally and so on. In several years future, the currency authority will gradually realize the interest rate marketability, which will have the profound influence to the interest rate policy practice. The conclusions of the article has the beneficial theory and practice significance. For instance, the relations between interest rate and the investment grows influenced by many kinds of factors, this is supplement to the traditional theory, also fully indicate complex influence relations between various economical variable in the economical movement, simultaneously have important guiding sense to the currency authority on fully considered each kind of disturbance factor to enhance the validity of interest rate and so on. Key words: Interest rate Investment Economy growth Elastic 目录 第一章 导论…………………………………………………………1 第二章 基本理论综述………………………………………………9 第一节 利率理论………………………………………………9 第二节 投资理论………………………………………………11 第三节 利率与投资的关系……………………………………14 第三章 实际利率与投资的实证研究及分析………………………19 第一节 中国利率管理体制和利率政策实践…………………19 第二节 实际利率与投资总量关系分析………………………22 第三节 实际利率与投资结构关系分析………………………31 第四节 实际利率与不同所有制投资关系分析………………34 第四章 实际利率与投资的传导机制分析…………………………41 第一节 传导机制之一：投资意愿……………………………41 第二节 传导机制之二：资金来源……………………………45 第五章 中国固定资产投资的适度增长……………………………55 第一节 中国固定资产投资增长的宏观经济环境……………55 第二节 中国固定资产投资现状………………………………58 第三节 中国固定资产投资的适度增长………………………62 第六章 中国投资适度增长中的利率政策…………………………68 第一节 利率政策独立性………………………………………68 第二节 利率政策有效性和操作方式…………………………71 第三节 利率市场化改革………………………………………78 参考文献………………………………………………………………84 后记……………………………………………………………………88