摘要 随着国内投资的快速增长和对外贸易盈余的持续扩大，中国金融体系内的“存贷差”与国际收支上的“双顺差”引起了人们的广泛关注。为什么“存贷差”与“双顺差”能够长时期同时存在，为什么在“存贷差”持续拉大的情况下，会出现 “双顺差”的剧增？如果存贷差与银行不良资产过多有关，那么“双顺差”是否与银行不良资产对“存贷差”的影响有关？观察“不良资产率”导致投资收益率下滑及“存贷差”扩大的过程机理，可以为分析“双顺差”形成机理提供一种分析框架。依据论文的研究主题，主要分析以下几个方面： 第一，“产业政策取向下的外资流入”。本文依据“两缺口模型”与“经济扭曲模型”分析经济发展目标与投资效率之间的决定关系及其对外资流入的需求，并分析金融效率与外资流入的相互关系及其导致外资流入变化的条件。通过对技术约束成因的分析，可以看到脱离技术吸收能力支持的技术升级会形成新的技术约束，如果对技术约束视而不见，则会导致技术选择偏差，造成“生产性低效率”；在经济发展目标不改变的情况下，“生产性低效率”产生风险并加重产业金融体系的“软约束行为”。从技术约束下的“双缺口模型”可知，即使储蓄缺口和外汇缺口消失，技术约束也可能仍然存在，投资低效率不断加重，从而使潜在储蓄缺口显现出来。在“经济扭曲模型”的分析框架内，投资持续低效率引发产业金融系统性风险，使经济扭曲不断加剧，同时导致外资流入增多。本文论证了产业结构升级过度推进造成生产性低效率，软约束行为转嫁风险，从而导致累积性金融风险的发生过程。 第二，“外资流入变化的动因”。本文从软约束行为导致不良资产过多的分析中看到，这种情况下的银行“存贷差”及“滞贷”现象，并不意味着国有银行自我信贷约束的增强，而是在国有银行商业化改革过程中，出现了严重的软约束、低效率问题。本文分析国有商业银行软约束行为及不良资产所受到的产业政策导向和技术约束下的政策性负担的制约和影响，银行“制度性套利”与“存贷差”之间的相互影响机制，由此造成的金融低效率以及金融风险。在这种银行系统性风险增大的情况下，高技术、大规模实物投资等外资流入的增大减少了国有银行为推动产业结构升级所要求的信贷投放量，因而相应地降低了不良资产的增加。而在过度推进的产业结构升级政策不做出应有的调整的情况下，不良资产的增加及其所加剧的银行系统性风险不会有实质性的降低，由此对外资流入的需求会增强，相应的外资流入政策会引发外资流入模式的变动。 第三，“外资政策影响下的外资流入模式变化”。本文分析引进外资政策的取向对外资流入模式的影响。我国引进外资政策重视鼓励直接投资等长期资本流动，限制间接投资等短期资本流动。这种引资政策促使外商直接投资大量流入，但同时，造成间接投资等短期资本流入过少，出现流动性不足或变现风险。从金融风险形成过程与外商投资规避风险的行为角度来观察外资流入变动情况，有利于对外资流入模式的变化机制做出更好的分析。 第四，“外资流入模式变化的影响和后果”。本文分析外商独资企业和外资控股企业竭力以先进技术优势压制东道国后发企业的竞争，力图将东道国资源纳入其全球生产体系，以“资本控制权优势”应对东道国比较优势企业的竞争，从而跨国公司能便利地开展“公司内贸易”和“产业内贸易”以实现生产与贸易一体化的全球产业分工。东道国企业受到外商投资冲击，面临两种选择：一是充分利用本国资源禀赋的比较优势，从全球化产业分工获得收益和发展；二是提高产业结构升级速度、加速发挥后发优势，抵御外商投资冲击。在产业结构升级过度推进下，东道国“以出口产业支持进口替代产业”的压力增大，对外贸易依存度加深，技术型出口对外资流入形成更强依赖。而随着出口贸易条件的恶化，出口收益会降低，以扩大出口支持进口替代产业升级的困难增大。 通过将“两缺口模型”与“经济扭曲模型”结合起来所形成的分析框架可以看出整个论文的分析思路，从技术选择偏差到技术约束、从投资低效率到不良资产的增加、从产业金融风险到经济扭曲的加剧、从对外资流入的依赖到外资政策的变化、从外资独资化到技术转移受阻、从扩大出口规模到维持固定汇率、从汇率升值到出口贸易条件的恶化、从外商直接投资的国际收支净效应的可持续性困境到加快进口替代产业发展的巨大代价，本文分析到产业政策取向和外资流入变化的关系及其所造成的内外经济失衡的过程机理，从而揭示出储蓄缺口的形成以及存贷差与双顺差发生的原因。 关键词：存贷差、双顺差、产业政策取向、银行系统性风险、外资流入模式 The Research on the Change of Capital Inflow under the Orientation of Industial policy: the Correlativity of Deposit-loan Margin and Twin Surpluses of the Balance of Payment Abstract With the rapid expanding of domestic investment and the constant enlarging of trade earnings, Deposit-loan margin in the financial system and Twin Surpluses of the Balance of Payment, the important economic phenomena in present China, provoke great concert on it simultaneously. Why it is possible for deposit-loan margin and Twin Surpluses of the Balance of Payment to concur in a long period and increase gradually? Does the relationship between deposit-loan margin and excessive non-performing bank assets justify the presumption that double earning is associated with the influence of non-performing bank assets on deposit-loan margin? The process mechanism of how non-performing asset rate results in the decline of investment-return rate and the increase of deposit-loan margin provides an analysis framework for formation mechanism of Twin Surpluses of the Balance of Payment of China. Based on the present thesis, I summarize my research as follows: Firstly, foreign capital inflow under industrial policy preference. Based on the Two-Gap Model and the Economic Distortion Model, the present thesis analyzed the relationship between economic development goal and investment efficiency and required foreign capital inflow. Meanwhile, it explored the interrelationship between financial efficiency and foreign capital inflow as well as the conditions required to lead to foreign capital inflow changes. Through the analysis of the causes of technology constraint, it is indicated that technology upgrade unsupported by technology absorptive capacity engenders new technology constraints. The neglect of technology constraints gives birth to technique selection bias and productivity low efficiency. The latter, in turn, results in risks and strengthens soft constraint behaviors of industrial financial system if economic development goal remains unchanged. According to the Two-Gap Model under technology constraint, technology constraints may still exist even if saving gap and exchange gap vanish. As the problem of investment low efficiency worsens, the potential saving gap reveals. In the Economic Distortion Model framework, constant investment low efficiency incurs systematic risks of industrial finance, aggravated economic distortion, and increased foreign investment. The first chapter demonstrated the process of how excessive upgrade of industrial structures gives birth to productivity low efficiency and soft constraint behavior risk transfer, and induces accumulated financial risk. Secondly, cause of capital inflow changes. This chapter analyzed how soft constraint behaviors bring about excessive non-performing assets and argued that deposit-loan margin and loan halts do not imply enhanced self credit constraint of state-owned banks. Soft constraint and low efficiency emerge in the process of commercialization of state-owned banks. This chapter focused on restriction and influences on soft constraint behaviors and non-performing assets of state-owned commercial banks by industrial policy dominance and policy burden derived from technology constraint, interactional mechanism between institution arbitrage and deposit-loan margin, and resulting financial low efficiency and financial risks. In circumstances of enlarged systematic financial risks, increase of foreign capital inflow, such as high-tech and large-scale material investments, decreases the amount of bank loan from state-owned banks for upgrading industrial structures, and hence reduces correspondingly increase of non-performing assets. If industrial policy of over upgrading is unchanged, the non-performing assets and the financial systemic risk will not subsrantially reduced, therefore policies of foreign capital inflow is obliged to get strengthened, the change of mode of capital inflow will take place. Thirdly, mode changes of foreign capital inflow influenced by foreign investment policies. This chapter analyzed the impact on foreign capital inflow modes by foreign investment policy preference. Chinese foreign investment policies value and encourage long-run capital flow, such as foreign direct investment, and restrict short-run capital flow, such as foreign indirect investment. This sort of policies greatly promoted the inflow of foreign direct investment, but meanwhile results in scarce short-run capital inflow, which leads to extremely deficient liquidity or discount crisis. Observing the formation process of financial risks and the risk evasion of foreign investment helps to give more accurate analysis of change mechanism of foreign capital inflow modes. Fourthly, impacts and consequences engendered by changes of foreign capital inflow mode. Analysis in this chapter revealed that individual-owned foreign companies and foreign holding companies endeavor to suppress competition of catching-up host companies with advanced technology advantages, strive to bring host resources into their global production system, use their capital control advantages to compete with host companies’ comparative advantages, and realize global industrial distribution of production and trade integration with MNC internal-company trade and internal-industry trade. Under the impact of foreign investment, host companies are confronted with two choices. The first is to make full use of comparative advantages of host resource endowments and gain profits and development from global industrial distribution. The second is to resist the impact of foreign investment by speeding up efforts to upgrade of industrial structures and exerting catching-up advantages. Over-boosted by upgrade of industrial structures, the pressure of supporting import substitution industry by export-led industry in host country rises, dependence on foreign trade is strengthened, and technical-oriented export relies increasingly on foreign capital inflow. Therefore, export trade conditions deteriorate, export returns recede and difficulties in upgrading import substitution industry supported by export expansion increase. Analysis made in the present thesis is displayed in the framework which combines the Two-Gap Model and the Economic Distortion Model. The relationship between the orientation of industrial policies and the change of foreign capital inflow, the resulting process mechanism of internal-external unbalance，the formation of saving-investment gap, and the causes of deposit-loan margin and Twin Surpluses of the Balance of Payment are revealed through the analysis of a series of economic phenomena, from technique selection bias to technology constraint, from investment low efficiency to increase of non-performing assets, from industrial financial systemic risks to worsening of economic distortion, from dependence on foreign capital inflow to paradox of capital policy, from individualization of foreign investment to suffocation of technology transfer, from enlarging quantity of export to sustainment of fixed exchange rate, from exchange appreciation to deterioration of trade terms of exports, and also from continual crisis of net effect of FDI on balance of payments to huge price of development of import-substituted industry. Keywords: Deposit-loan margin、Twin Surpluses of the Balance of Payment、 Orientation of industrial policy、Bank systemic risks 、Mode of capital inflow 目 录 0.导 言 1 0.1问题的提出：外资流入中的“存贷差”与“双顺差” 1 0.2章节安排 2 0.3创新及不足 4 1.“存贷差”与“双顺差”的相关研究 5 1.1双缺口模型、宏观波动理论与产业政策 5 1.1.1双缺口模型的演化 5 1.1.2宏观波动模型的扩展 6 1.1.3产业政策的取向 7 1.2“存贷差”、不良资产与银行效率 8 1.2.1不良资产的成因 8 1.2.2注资、股份制改造与银行效率 10 1.2.3“存贷差”的认识 12 1.3资本管制、技术进步与“双顺差” 13 1.3.1“双顺差”与资本管制 13 1.3.2国际投资的沉没成本与变现危机 17 1.3.3技术进步与技术溢出效应 19 1.4融资约束与外资流入模式 21 2.产业政策取向下的外资流入 24 2.1“双缺口”模型的再认识 24 2.1.1双缺口模型的内涵 24 2.1.2技术约束的再认识 25 2.1.3技术约束、投资低效率与外资流入需求 27 2.2技术约束的成因：技术吸收能力的作用 30 2.2.1技术吸收能力的约束作用 30 2.2.2技术溢出效应的条件：技术吸收能力的支持范围 32 2.2.3技术约束的实证分析 35 2.3产业技术升级的过度推进 38 2.3.1科技主导型产业技术升级与技术选择偏差 39 2.3.2产业技术升级的过度推进：政策性负担与企业自生能力 42 2.3.3集中投融资体系下的产业金融安排 43 2.3.4产业技术升级过度推进的实证分析 48 2.4产业金融体系的低效率：经济扭曲与外资流入 53 2.4.1产业金融低效率下的“经济扭曲” 54 2.4.2产业技术升级过度推进下的外资流入 55 2.4.3外资流入、不良资产与“经济扭曲” 58 2.5潜在“双缺口”与外资流入 59 2.5.1储蓄过剩下的外资流入 60 2.5.2外汇盈余下的外资流入 63 2.6小结 66 3.外资流入变化的动因：银行系统性风险 68 3.1不良资产的变化及成因 68 3.1.1不良资产的变化 69 3.1.2“强政府”干预下的政策性负担 70 3.1.3双重预算软约束行为 71 3.2“滞贷”、负债资本金与制度性套利 74 3.2.1“滞贷”与“消极性投资” 74 3.2.2负债资本金压力 76 3.2.3国有银行“制度性套利”行为 77 3.3银行系统性风险 81 3.3.1“利率双轨制”制度安排 81 3.3.2银行资产负债结构危机 82 3.3.3银行系统性风险的加剧 86 3.4银行系统性风险加剧下的外资流入 88 3.4.1不良资产的减少：技术升级下的投资压力 89 3.4.2不良资产的稀释：负债资本金压力的缓和 93 3.4.3不良资产的降低：“债转股”“虚位化”的改变 96 3.4.4外资流入与储蓄缺口的掩盖 98 3.5小结 99 4.外资政策影响下的外资流入模式变化 101 4.1外资流入的政策导向 101 4.1.1长期资本与短期资本的“松紧政策”偏好 101 4.1.2失衡的外资流入格局 102 4.1.3资本管制强度的变化 103 4.1.4短期资本流动缺位下的长期资本流动风险 104 4.1.5资产专用性、沉没成本与融资约束 106 4.2外资流入模式的变化 107 4.2.1内资与外资融资约束差异 107 4.2.2内部融资依赖与价格转移 112 4.2.3持续的“阴谋亏损”与中方合资企业控股权的丧失 115 4.3“阴谋亏损”的行为模式 116 4.4实证分析与计量检验：外商投资企业的独资化趋势 124 4.4.1变量选择 124 4.4.2数据模型 130 4.4.3计量检验 131 4.5小结 132 5.外资流入模式变化的影响及后果 134 5.1外资流入自主性加强 134 5.1.1全球战略下的技术控制 134 5.1.2“产业技术转移”受阻 135 5.1.3内资与外资的出口收益反差加大 136 5.2出口贸易依存度的加深：“双顺差”增大 137 5.2.1较高的出口贸易依存度 137 5.2.2固定汇率的困境 140 5.2.3“双顺差”与外汇储备剧增 141 5.3外商直接投资“国际收支净效应”难以维持的困境 142 5.3.1外商直接投资国际收支净效应的可持续性条件 142 5.3.2出口贸易条件的恶化：汇率升值 145 5.3.3外商直接投资变动与国际收支危机 152 5.4“双向依赖”的加强、金融压制的深化与产业升级政策的调整 156 5.4.1“双向依赖”与内资出口产业贫困化增长 156 5.4.2“活—乱”循环与金融压制的深化 162 5.4.3产业政策过度推进的改变：虚假的储蓄过剩与真实的外汇盈余 167 5.5小结 172 6.总结 174 6.1思路与结论 174 6.2现实的回应：加快市场化改革 178 6.2.1加快政府职能转变，改变宏观管理微观化。 178 6.2.2改善宏观政策环境，提高微观经营效率。 179 6.3派生的争论:发展中国家经济发展战略的选择 180