摘 要 在宏观经济理论和各国的政策实践中，居民消费一直被视为维持经济稳定的主要力量之一。然而，自1992年以来，我国居民消费倾向却持续走低。发展到目前，“消费轻、投资重”（方福前，2005）已经成为各方所关注的一个重大难题。本文的全部内容就是试图揭示这一不合意现象背后的深层次根源，以及这种现象进一步恶化可能导致的严重宏观后果，希望能够借此为我国反思过去的发展得失，确立“科学发展观”提供一个视角的启示。 与目前主流居民消费理论的基调一致，现存的我国居民消费研究绝大部分坚持：市场化过程中所带来的不确定性，以及传统保障体制的逐步解体，是我国1992年以来居民消费倾向不断下降的主要原因。然而，经济主体对“风险”的感受只有相对于其所持有的“财富”来说才有意义。这些分析的最大缺陷就是在强调纵向风险增加的同时，却在一定程度上忽视了绝对收入水平及其增长速度对我国居民消费行为所产生的重大影响。实际上，一个与风险相匹配的收入和财富持有水平才是保持居民消费倾向稳定的关键。本文的经验证据表明，1990年代以来出台的改革措施在使居民自身承担越来越大风险的同时，却没有相应改善居民收入状况的配套措施。结果，在我国经济依靠高投资维持高增长的同时，居民部门对经济成果的分享比例却越来越小。换言之，如果说20世纪80年代我国居民所承担的风险和其收入（财富）大体是匹配的话——事实上，虽然这段时期市场化急剧推进，但居民消费依然保持了良好态势，那么，90年代居民消费需求不足则是风险承担水平过快增长，而收入（财富）水平不足以应付这一事实在宏观居民消费行为上的反映。 进一步的分析发现，我国居民收入主要来源于劳动报酬，因而，收入水平及其增长速度过低更准确地说其实是劳动报酬及其增长水平过低的结果，其反映的是要素市场上劳动要素谈判能力的低下。令人深思的，在我国这样一个政府主导改革过程的国家，要素市场迄今为止仍然受到政府的较多干预，这样一种劳动报酬状况可能恰恰反映了政府的某种主观政策取向。对我国劳动市场的初步分析证实了这种推断：为维持劳动力低成本的比较优势，政府对劳动成本的“过快上涨”一直保持着高度警惕。其他学者更为广泛、深入的研究（克鲁格，1987：p.194；戴约，1991；戴约，1996；布雷德福，1996；Kuruvilla, 1996等）进一步确认了这种判断：对劳动力成本的控制在我国引以为榜样的日本、“亚洲四小龙”等经济体高速发展时期均无一例外地存在。 如此一致的政策取向应该绝非偶然。在对经济发展（增长）理论进行系统梳理之后，本文发现，这种抑制劳动成本上涨、以及最终（在事实上有意无意地）演变为抑制消费政策的思想源头，其实不过是经济发展（增长）理论在“储蓄≡投资”传统恒等式下强调供给方作用、忽略需求方作用的“资本（积累）优先”（袁钢明，2005d）观念。不可否认，小国经济（包括一个幅员广大国家的经济发展起步阶段）可能通过抑制内需、努力开拓外需，利用所谓的外向型经济来获得高速经济增长。然而，对于任何足以影响贸易条件的大国经济来说，则不可能在长期依赖外需的情况下获得可持续的增长。令人遗憾的是，作为东亚小经济体成功经验理论归纳的“比较优势发展战略”，由于对积累作用和低廉劳动成本优势的特别强调，使得其在我国自觉不自觉地被过度推进了 。这直接构成了我国1992年后劳动报酬受到抑制、居民收入增长缓慢、从而消费倾向下降的根源。 这种比较优势过度推进的战略造成了严重宏观后果：由居民消费需求不足所导致的最终消费率偏低，使通货紧缩始终如影随形；相对于过低的最终消费率，过高的投资率使宏观经济动态无效率；过高的投资率带来生产能力的严重过剩，使外贸依存度畸高；为消化过剩生产能力而不遗余力地出口，在带来巨额外贸盈余的同时使我国陷入“高储蓄两难” （Conflicted Virtue）麦金农（R. I. Mckinnon，2005）困境。 本文的全部逻辑表明：对于大国经济来说，始终应该把国内居民消费作为稳定宏观经济的基本力量；对于经济的长期持续、快速、健康发展来说，需求方的作用像供给方一样不容忽略；与投资相比，消费甚至是在长期内保持经济持续平稳增长的更为根本的力量。因此，在我国目前大力倡导的“科学发展观”中，应当始终把改善人民生活、稳定居民需求作为最重要的目标之一。 与现存单纯从风险角度对我国居民消费需求不足给出解释，以及由此引导出的通过完善社会保障缓解风险、刺激消费的政策含义不同，本文从收入-风险可匹配性角度给出的解释表明，对于“摸着石头过河”因而国家信誉不可避免地要受到侵蚀和贬损的转轨经济来说，唯有居民自身收入和财富的稳定增加才会使其拥有安全感，所以，至少在目前，居民收入水平的提高对其消费行为的正面影响会比社会保障大得多。 关键词：居民消费需求不足；风险-收入可匹配性假说；经济发展战略；宏观后果 Abstract Household consumption is a major strength in maintaining a macro-economy stable. However, Chinese household consumption propensity has been decreasing since 1992. Now it has become a discomforting problem that “consumption is abnormally low, and investment abnormally high” (Fang, 2005). This paper is to explore the fundamental causes and to consider the serious conquences on Chinese macro-economy. This work may help to evaluate the economic development experiences since the reform and open-door policies began in the late 1970s and to establish “the Scientific View of Development” on the eve of the twenty-first century. Most of the existing work on the topic argues that the uncertainties during the marketization and the disintegration of the Social Security System in the Planned Economy be the main reasons for the deficiency of household consumption in China since 1992, which is in accordance with the mainstream household consumption theories. However, the agent’s sensitivity of risk is relative to his wealth. The above analyses only focuses on the influences of growing risks added to Chinese households, at the same time, that of changes of their wealth/incomes are totally ignored. In fact, the key factor that maintains the household consumption propensity steady is a matched wealth/incomes relative to risks. The empirical research suggests that most Reform measures in 1990s were to burden more and more risks on Chinese households and seldom to improve their incomes, which led to the share of the growing amount of GDP distributed to Chinese households decreasing year by year. That is, the deficiency of household consumption should be owned to the unmatched growing risks related to incomes/wealth in 1990s. Detailed empirical research shows that the main part of Chinese household incomes is labor compensation and the growth rate of it dominates that of incomes. The fact of low volume and growth rate of compensation reflects the bargaining power of Chinese labor too weak in the factor market. As the central government is the policy-maker of Chinses economic reform, the factor markets including the labor market are inevitably intervened by the power of authorities. The situations of the labor market and the level of the labor compensation must reveal the preference of the central government. The deduction is confirmed by the analysis of Chinese labor market, which shows that central government always closely guards against the so-called “the cost of labor excessively rapid rise” in order to keep the comparative advantage of low-cost-labor-intensive industries. The other detailed research on the east Asian countries (Kruger, 1987: p.194; Deyo, 1991； Deyo, 1996；Kuruvilla, 1996; and others) is also consistent with the above assertation, especially the experiences of Japan and the four Small Dragons during the stage of take-off which are taken as our models in a long time. Different countries have similar policy preferences must imply a meaningful logic. A systematic literature review shows that the origin of the policies of guarding against the rise of labor costs and controlling consumption is the rigid capital/investment-centered doctrine, which stresses the function of supply side and neglects that of demand side for the presumption of saving equivalent to investment. Although small country economies are able to develop by promoting and expanding trade (export-oriented economies) given household consumption inadequate, the large country economies like China can’t maitain by the same way because of the effects of trade terms. However, the Comparative Advantage Strategy, as a summarization and generalization of the successful experiences of Japan and the four Small Dragons, boasts the low cost of labor and fast capital accumulation, which misguides Chinese government to suppress the growth rate of labor compensation and household incomes. As the consequences of the distorted policies, Chinese household consumption propensity gets decreasing since 1992. The distorted Comparative Advantage Strategy worsens the macroeconomic performance of China. Firstly, the deficiency of household consumption results in the consumer-spending rate too low and deflation closely associated with Chinese economy. Secondly, the overhigh investment rate as the counterpart of low consumer-spending rate makes Chinese macro economy out of the dynamic efficiency zone. Thirdly, the excessive investment year-by-year leads to over-capacity, which bothers the government to expand the export to lessen the capacity burden and dives up Chinese dependence ratio of trade. Forthly, the expansion of export builds up too much trade surplus, which makes China bump into the “Conflicted Virtue” (Mckinnon, 2005). In a word, this paper argues that the government should recognize that household consumption play a major role in stabilizing macro economy, especially in large country like China, and the strenth of demand is as powerfull as that of supply in promoting economy fast and continuable and steady development in the long run. It should be an essential part of the Scientific View of Development to improve the living standard of people and stabilize the level of household consumption expenditures. Unlike the prevailing policy implications of perfecting the social security system to boosting the consumer demand expenditures from the standpoint of risks, this paper argues that the policies of improving Chinese households’ incomes and wealth should be more effective at the time being from the matched income-risk hypothesis originally put forward in the paper. The inherent logic is that the government of a transition economy as China, whose reform is based on the philosophy of “groping stones to cross the river”, has little reputation, so consumers do not believe in anybody or institutions except themselves. That is, the insurance offered by the permanent income of is more effective in household consumption expansion. Key Words: Deficiency of Chinese household consumption；Matched risk-income hypothesis; Economic development strategy; Macro economic consequences 目 录 0 导言 1 0.1问题的提出 1 0.2本文的分析思路 3 0.3本文的结构 4 0.4本文的创新之处 6 1 主流居民消费理论：假说与经验证据 7 1.1预防储蓄假说 8 1.2流动性约束假说 13 1.3缓冲存货假说 15 1.4习惯形成假说 18 1.5评论性小结 20 2 我国居民消费变动：风险-收入可匹配性假说及其检验 21 2.1相关研究回顾 21 2.2我国居民消费变动：风险-收入可匹配性假说 25 2.2.1简要的背景回顾：我国1990年代的风险转嫁型改革 25 2.2.2我国居民消费的风险-收入可匹配性假说 29 2.2.3 1992年后我国居民风险-收入的不匹配：初步的经验证据 34 2.3一个多因素的综合检验 37 2.3.1变量选取及必要说明 37 2.3.2模型及回归结果 43 2.4小结 48 3 我国居民收入低增长：劳动市场议价能力假说 50 3.1劳动收入支配下的中国居民收入变动：基于收入结构的分析 50 3.1.1农村居民收入来源的结构分析 50 3.1.2城镇居民收入来源的结构分析 52 3.2劳动收入低增长的原因：劳动议价能力假说 55 3.2.1宏观收入分配格局中居民收入的相对变动：现象描述 55 3.2.2劳动市场状况与劳动收入份额相对下降：劳动议价能力假说 59 3.3小结 65 4 经济发展战略、政府劳动政策取向与劳动议价能力 66 4.1不同发展战略下的劳动政策含义 66 4.2比较优势理论的逻辑断点及其被过度推进的可能性 68 4.2.1比较优势理论的逻辑断点 68 4.2.2比较优势战略的过度推进：来自“亚洲四小龙”劳动市场的经验证据 69 4.2.3比较优势战略的过度推进：1990年以来的中国劳动政策取向分析 71 4.3比较优势战略过度推进的思想根源及其检讨 80 4.4小结 84 5 我国居民消费需求不足的宏观后果 85 5.1低消费率下的通货紧缩阴影 85 5.2高投资率下的宏观经济动态无效率 88 5.3生产能力过剩下的高外贸依存度困境 93 5.4持续外贸盈余下的“高储蓄两难” 100 5.5小结 105 6 结束语 106 参考文献 107 致 谢 123 表目录 表1- 1预防储蓄的经验检验及其结果 11 表2- 1 1990年代以来与居民收支相关的改革措施 26 表2- 2我国居民家庭恩格尔系数 29 表2- 3世界前十大经济体及印度居民最终消费年均增长率比较 30 表2- 4我国居民和美国居民的“缓冲存货”对比 36 表2- 5综合检验回归数据汇总表 42 表2- 6综合检验回归结果（一） 45 表2- 7综合检验回归结果（二） 45 表2- 8滞后一期资产对消费影响的回归结果（一） 47 表2- 9滞后一期资产对消费影响的回归结果（二） 47 表3- 1我国农村居民人均纯收入来源结构 50 表3- 2我国农村居民收入增长的结构分析 52 表3- 3我国城镇居民收入来源结构 53 表3- 4我国城镇居民收入增长的结构分析 54 表3- 5我国各主体在GDP中所得份额 55 表3- 6我国的劳动报酬平价 57 表3- 7我国的就业分布状况 59 表3- 8我国企业在1991年的自主权状况 61 表3- 9我国农村劳动力就业情况 62 表3- 10我国城乡之间劳动收入的GRANGER因果检验结果 64 表4- 1主要新兴工业化国家教育、卫生、社会保障和福利在政府全部支出中所占比重 70 表4- 2我国国有部门与非国有部门工资水平的GRANGER因果检验结果 73 表4- 3我国的失业保险情况 76 表4- 4农民税费负担 77 表5- 1新加坡的外贸依存度 87 表5- 2我国宏观经济动态效率评估：工业企业资金利润率与经济增长 91 表5- 3我国宏观经济动态效率评估：总投资和总收益 92 表5- 4我国的出口状况 95 表5- 5我国及世界前五位遭受贸易保障和反倾销措施的国家和地区 98 表5- 6我国的贸易条件指数变化 98 表5- 7我国出口的主要目的地（占中国出口总额的百分比） 101 表5- 8我国在主要国家贸易逆差中的地位 101 图目录 图0- 1我国居民平均消费倾向变动 2 图0- 2我国居民最终消费率 2 图1- 1两期模型中的预防储蓄 9 图1- 2不确定性下消费的时间路径 10 图1- 3目标储蓄与预期消费增长 17 图2- 1“风险-收入可匹配性假说”的居民总财富路径和平均消费倾向路径 33 图2- 2居民人均实际可支配（纯）收入指数 34 图2- 3我国的平均房价-收入比 35 图3- 1经济增长与居民收入增长指数（1978=100） 58 图4- 1我国国有部门工资水平与总体工资水平 72 图4- 2国有部门职工名义工资相对增长速度 74 图5- 1我国最终消费率与其他国家组的比较 85 图5- 2中国最终消费率与日本和东亚经济体相同发展阶段的比较 86 图5- 3我国的价格水平 88 图5- 4中国与其他国家组投资率比较 89 图5- 5我国与东亚经济体相同发展阶段投资率比较 90 图5- 6我国相对于消费的生产能力指标：固定资产净值形成超前系数 94 图5- 7中国与东亚国家月工资的比较 95 图5- 8中国与其它国家组的外贸依存度比较 97 图5- 9我国贸易条件指数变化的国际比较（1995=100） 99 图5- 10我国的出口退税 99 图5- 11我国的贸易平衡 100 图5- 12我国国际收支中的错误与遗漏 103 图5- 13我国的外汇储备（不含黄金储备） 103