中国社会科学院研究生院 博士学位论文 导师姓名：董辅礽 导师职称：研究员 本人姓名：马欣原 专业：政治经济学 系别：经济系 申请学位：博士 论文摘要：（限1200字以内）关于汇率制度选择的文献一般都关注两种高度简化的汇率制度——自由浮动汇率制和严格固定汇率制。在最近的文献中，两极汇率制度超越了理论研究：由于它们被认为是两种具有可持续性的汇率制度，因而也是发展中国家汇率制度的终极模式。这些理论所依据的一个重要分析框架是不可能三角原理，即资本自由流动、货币政策自主性与汇率稳定三者不可兼得。我们的分析表明，不可能三角原理实际上是一种适用于短期的理论，根据它来推导所谓的具有可持续性的汇率制度本身就是一个悖论。能够在稳定与灵活之间进行权衡的中间汇率制度是发展中国家的现实选择，不可能三角也可以有更灵活的组合形式。从改革开放以来人民币汇率制度和汇率政策的变迁来看，人民币汇率变动主要是服从于贸易发展战略的整体框架的，汇率政策的变动服从于贸易发展战略各阶段的要求。在贸易发展战略多层次和出口产品结构多元化的条件下，具有总量调控效果的汇率政策已经与其他贸易干预政策紧密结合，共同推动贸易结构及产业结构升级。在这种形势下，汇率调整和汇率制度改革因为牵涉面广泛、影响因素多，需要多方面改革措施的配套以及相关政策的协调。进一步地，我们借鉴Ito等和Krueger关于巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应的研究对人民币实际汇率进行了分析。我们的研究强调，中国的出口产品结构虽然在产业政策的带动下逐步升级，但比较优势并未从禀赋的劳动力优势转变为资本和技术优势，劳动力比较优势在长期内仍将继续保持。禀赋的劳动力比较优势与工业化战略对人民币实际汇率造成了两股相互背离的作用力，汇率调整方向因此难以确定。这也正是制约汇率制度改革的深层次因素。只有加强改革措施的配套和相关政策的协调，尽量减少汇率浮动的负面影响，汇率制度走向浮动才真正具有现实可能性。在中国日益开放的条件下，资本流动对汇率制度和宏观经济的影响也日益增强。通过对中国国际收支的研究，我们做出了资本净流入在未来一段时间内仍将是中国经济所面临的外部条件的判断。随着中国经济步入经济周期中一个新的上升轨道，资本大量流入加剧了控制通货膨胀和维持汇率稳定的内外部平衡冲突。在传统的冲销手段（收回再贷款，收回再贴现，提高法定存款准备金率，以及公开市场操作）不能有效发挥作用，征收资本进口税和放开资本流出渠道等手段不具备实施条件的现实情况下，宏观调控手段的缺乏使汇率制度走向浮动的改革具有了必要性。全文的研究可以归纳为：目前的人民币钉住汇率制度走向浮动的改革兼具可能性和必要性，但由于受到国内金融体系不成熟和资本管制部分失效的现实条件的制约，中间汇率制是合意的选择。 论文摘要：（限1200字以内）The choice between fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes has long been one of the most fundamental issues in international finance. Some recent papers have emphasized that the bipolar exchange rate regimes——purely floating exchange rate and irrevocably fixed nominal exchange rate——are the optimal choices in terms of sustainability. However, further analyses on the principle of the impossible trinity show that the bipolar exchange rate regimes are not justified. Key to the analyses is the short-term characteristic of the principle of the impossible trinity. In fact, as history has shown again and again, fixed exchange rates often fail to achieve macroeconomic stability and end up in major devaluation crises. Moreover, purely floating exchange rates are not practical for developing countries because these countries lack full-fledged domestic financial markets. For this reason, many developing countries prefer to some intermediate exchange rate regimes which allow tradeoffs between stability and flexibility, that is to say, the layers between the two extreme exchange rate regimes are potential options.The renminbi's exchange rate regime has been subject to China's trade development strategy during the past quarter of a century. A comprehensive review of China's trade development strategy and trade policies reflects that the trade development strategy requires structural adjustment. Against such a backdrop, the exchange rate policy which has gross adjusting effect should be combined with relative fiscal policies nowadays. Furthermore, in order to acquire a profound understanding of the influence of trade development strategy on the renminbi's exchange rate, we critically review Ito etal. and Krueger's literature that focuses on the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis, which provides a useful yardstick for assessing exchange rate behavior. Thorough analyses reveal that although China has experienced a rapid change in machine exports, the comparative advantage lies mostly in abundance of labor. The conflict between upgrading in trade structure and low price of labor is just the conflict faced by trade development strategy .It demonstrates that there are two contradictory powers acting on the renminbi's real exchange rate. Failing a unitary trend there are restrictions on a flexible exchange rate regime. Therefore, China has to ratchet up her exchange rate regime reform in the context of a set of relative arrangements. Integrated with analyses of capital inflows and outflows, we particularly evaluate the balance of payment sheets of China. We make the point that net-capital-inflow will be the external terms for China. In the light of China's booming macroeconomic performance, we argue that capital inflow surges will highlight the dilemma faced by the PBoC (the People's Bank of China) in containing the expansion of the monetary base and keeping a lid on the currency's appreciation. However, almost all of the traditional sterilized intervention approaches are subject to serious limitations as well as shortcomings. As to some other alternative measures, including imposing implicit taxes on foreign financing and relaxing restrictions on capital outflows, thorough analyses show that they are not yet viable. In sum, a more flexible exchange rate regime is a necessity.In sum, it is possible as well as necessary for the renminbi's exchange rate regime to be more flexible, and the optimal exchange rate regime would be a intermediate exchange rate regime in the light of the immaturity of domestic financial system and the inefficacy of capital controls. Key words: the renminbi's exchange rate regime, the principle of the impossible trinity, trade development strategy, capital flows, the independence of monetary policy 目 录 0 导言……………………………………………………………………………………1 0.1 问题的提出…………………………………………………………………………1 0.2 人民币汇率制度改革的研究概览…………………………………………………1 0.3 本文的思路和结构安排……………………………………………………………3 1 汇率制度选择理论论争………………………………………………………………5 1.1 汇率制度分析的基本理论…………………………………………………………5 1.1.1 米德冲突……………………………………………………………………5 1.1.2 蒙代尔-弗莱明模型 ………………………………………………………6 1.1.3 不可能三角原理……………………………………………………………7 1.2 汇率制度选择的传统理论论争……………………………………………………7 1.2.1 汇率制度选择传统理论论争的宏观经济学溯源…………………………7 1.2.2 固定汇率制与浮动汇率制孰优孰劣的传统观点…………………………8 1.3 货币危机理论与汇率制度选择理论的新发展……………………………………9 1.3.1 货币危机理论………………………………………………………………9 1.3.2 汇率制度选择理论新发展…………………………………………………15 1.4 对汇率制度选择理论的深入思考…………………………………………………18 1.4.1 引言：固定汇率制与货币危机的关联……………………………………19 1.4.2 不可能三角原理的短期性质………………………………………………21 1.4.3 发展中国家汇率制度选择的条件性………………………………………24 2 人民币汇率制度的演变与现状………………………………………………………26 2.1 人民币汇率制度的演变……………………………………………………………26 2.2 现行人民币汇率制度的主要内容…………………………………………………28 2.3 对人民币汇率制度改革及现状的评价……………………………………………30 3 贸易发展战略下的人民币汇率制度及实际汇率……………………………………34 3.1 有关实际汇率的基本理论…………………………………………………………34 3.1.1 购买力平价理论……………………………………………………………34 3.1.2 巴拉萨—萨缪尔森假说……………………………………………………37 3.2 工业化进程、对外贸易与人民币汇率……………………………………………38 3.2.1 人民币实际汇率和名义汇率变动的初步研究……………………………38 3.2.2 人民币汇率变动与贸易发展战略…………………………………………40 3.2.3 人民币汇率浮动需要考虑的相关条件……………………………………45 3.3 借助巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应对人民币实际汇率的研究…………………………47 3.3.1 相关研究介绍………………………………………………………………47 3.3.2 人民币实际汇率变动趋势分析……………………………………………50 3.4 小结…………………………………………………………………………………54 4 资本流动与人民币汇率制度…………………………………………………………55 4.1 外资政策的完善加大了资本流动对汇率的影响…………………………………55 4.2 资本流动与中国国际收支变动……………………………………………………56 4.2.1 资本流动与经常账户收支变动……………………………………………57 4.2.2 资本流动与资本和金融账户收支变动……………………………………62 4.2.3 “净误差与遗漏”项目与资本管制失效…………………………………64 4.2.4 资本流动的综合影响——资本净流入将是中国经济面临的外部条件…65 4.3 资本流入、内外部平衡与人民币汇率制度………………………………………66 4.3.1 资本流入条件下的内外平衡矛盾——汇率稳定与物价稳定……………66 4.3.2 维持汇率稳定的传统冲销干预手段的局限………………………………68 4.3.3 维持汇率稳定的其他干预手段缺乏可行性………………………………71 4.3.4 综合：汇率浮动作为解决内外平衡矛盾的手段…………………………73 4.4 小结………………………………………………………………………………73 5 结论和前瞻……………………………………………………………………………75 5.1 主要结论……………………………………………………………………………75 5.2 未来的研究问题……………………………………………………………………77 5.2.1 汇率政策的时间序列和周期变化…………………………………………77 5.2.2 汇率改革具体目标模式的选取……………………………………………77 5.2.3 汇率制度改革与货币政策的协调…………………………………………79 5.2.4 具体配套改革措施…………………………………………………………80