Bubbles and the Development of Monetary Policy Theory 导师姓名：吴敬琏 导师职称：教 授 本人姓名：黄广明 申请学位：博 士 专业：政治经济学 系 别：经济系 论文摘要 当前国际上在泡沫经济时期的货币政策对策问题上存在着争锋相对的两派主要观点，即以Bernanke and Gertler (1999) 为代表的无为论和以Cecchetti, Genberg, Lipsky, and Wadhwani (2000) 为代表的有为论，而这两派学者都宣称其观点符合当前货币经济理论发展的正统。为此，本文对近二三十年来货币经济理论和货币政策理论的发展进行了梳理，并进而发现当前主流的货币政策理论中存在着政策目标方面的模糊之处、政策手段方面的错误之处和政策规则方面的不足之处。本文认为，正是基本理论上的缺陷导致了对策研究上的争论。在对泡沫经济对货币与产出的影响机理进行研究（尤其是泡沫急剧膨胀时期的利率手段失灵，泡沫破灭之后由金融体系困境引致的经济萧条）的基础上，本文初步提出了经改进的货币政策理论框架，即以二元政策目标和二元政策手段为主要内容的二元框架，并基于此提出了不同于当前两派观点的货币政策应对泡沫经济的新建议。 关键词：泡沫经济 货币理论 货币政策 通货膨胀目标制 泰勒规则 ABSTRACT The debate between Bernanke and Gertler (1999) and Cecchetti, Genberg, Lipsky, and Wadhwani (2000) concerning the monetary policy under asset price boom-bust is originated from the flaws in contemporary mainstream theory of monetary policy.After reviewing and reorganizing the development of the theory of monetary economics, especially the theory of monetary policy, in the past 2-3 decades, the weaknesses and errors of the mainstream theory, in both the target(s) and instrument(s) of monetary policy, are pointed out. Furthermore, with the scrutiny of the impact of bubbles on money and output, including the invalidity of interest rate and the change of financial system in worsening the depression, a new framework of monetary policy theory, that is, the dual system, is developed. Subsequently, a new suggestion of monetary policy implementation under bubbles, which is basically different from those of BG (1999) and CGLW (2000), is put forward. Key Words bubbles, monetary theory, monetary policy, inflation targeting, Taylor rules